Italian constitutional referendum: a threat to EU integrity

The recent turmoil that has invested Europe since the “Brexit” referendum and Trump election as the President of the United States of America could be far from over. Should the Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi lose the constitutional referendum on 4 December 2016, several questions would be raised as to whether Italy is fit to remain in Europe.

It is however to specify that the uncertainty would be triggered solely by the outcome of the referendum. Italian productivity has fallen by 5% since the country has joined the Euro-zone, whereas countries such as Germany and France have seen an increase in productivity of about 10%.

Secondly, EU has thus far failed to secure a solid economic and banking union following the latest Eurozone crisis, choosing to impose austerity instead.

Populism has risen as the result of the combination of those two factors. In Italy, three main opposition parties have recently gained momentum and they all favour the exit from the euro, The 5 Star Movement, Forza Italia (Silvio Berlusconis political party) and Lega Nord.

Should Matteo Renzi lose the referendum, he would be expected to resign, as he has announced on several occasions. In the event of Renzis resignation, political havoc in the country could immediately follow, bringing Europe to the brink of disintegration.

In addition, France poses a similar threat. The possibility of Marine Le Pen becoming the next French prime minister is now more than a remote risk. Admittedly, Marine Le Pen appears to be the best prepared candidate for French presidency.

Should this be the case, a referendum on Frances permanence in the Euro-zone would be on top of the governments agenda. A possible “Frexit” could mark the end of EU and the euro.

A French or Italian exit from the euro would bring about the biggest default in history. Foreign holders of Italian or French euro-denominated debt would be paid in the equivalents of Italian Lira or French francs. Both would devalue. Since banks do not have to hold capital against their holdings of government bonds, the losses would force many continental banks into immediate bankruptcy. Germany would then realise a massive current account surplus which also has its downsides. There is a lot of German wealth waiting to be defaulted on.

Can this be prevented? In theory it can, but it would require a series of decisions taken in time and in the right sequence. In the first instance, Ms Merkel would have to accept what she refused in 2012 — a road map towards a full fiscal and political union. The EU would also need to strengthen the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which is not designed to handle countries the size of Italy or France.

Is this even remotely likely? Think about it this way, if you ask the German chancellor whether she wants commonly-backed Eurozone bonds, she will tell you no but if she has to choose between Eurobonds and an Italian exit from the euro, her response may well be different. The answer will also depend on whether you ask before or after the German elections next autumn.

The main expectation, however, remains not a collapse of the EU and the euro, but a departure of one or more countries, possibly Italy, but not France. In the light of recent events, the baseline scenario is now firmly on the optimistic scale of reasonable expectations.

If you wish to know more about how the Italian constitutional referendum could affect your business in Italy, do not hesitate to contact us at clientservices@giambronelaw.com or call us at +44 (0) 207 183 9482.